The media is filled with numbers about the economic crisis. But the numbers do not tell the full story.The Administration cannot shy away from the numbers, but rather needs to incorporate the real numbers of this recession into its communications. Otherwise - they lose the trust of the American public, and appears to be hiding the truth, rather than dealing with the reality of the situation. In the article, the Administration claims that the recovery plan
will help struggling families right now by saving or creating up to 4 million jobs
indicating that numbers do matter, which contradicts the previous statement. So when the media uses numbers, don't believe them, but when the Obama Administration uses numbers, its somehow more trustworthy? The twist is that although 4 million jobs may be created, how many are not being created? How does 4 million compare with the number of jobs that will be lost by the end of 2009?
The whole reason for the financial crisis is the complete negligance of numbers by investors, financial analysts, government regulating agencies, the Federal Reserve, credit rating agencies, and consumers.
Numbers like: credit scores, income, collateral - were ignored by the entire mortage industry, fueled by pressure from the government and incentives from the Feds to extend real estate ownership privileges to lower income families for no better explanation than "it was a good thing to do". Where "good" is now something up for debate.
Numbers like: future ARM rates, purchase price, household disposable income, equity, price-to-rent ratios - were ignored by consumers for social and cultural pressures under the belief that "housing prices will always rise" and "you're throwing your money away if you rent - buying a house is an investment". Well, we are reminded now that housing prices rise and fall just like any other market price, and "throwing your money away" and "investment" are words and phrases left for interpretation.
In several of the online doomsday scenarios of how this recession could play out, one of the last steps before complete breakdown of civil order is when the people discover that the government has been diliberately covering up the statistics that tell the true magnitude of the problem. Numbers are particularly uncomfortable for the government, because unlike words, which can be manipulated through vauge and ambiguous shadows of meanings, numbers mean very specific things, and although one may also have phoney numbers, its easier to spot a bogus statistic than a vaugue political memorandum that doesn't actually say anything substantial, but is open to interpretation.
If the market realizes negative growth for successive quarters, then mathematically the country is in recession.
If more people file for unemployment than new jobs created, they your unemployment statistic rises.
If banks do not trust the financial system then they will charge a higher premium for lending their liquid assets, and interest rates will rise.
If foreign countries like Saudi Arabia and China doubt the ability of the US to fulfill its future debt obligations, then the exchange rates will tank the US dollar.
Ambiguous statements such as
it will also help strengthen our economy for the future by investing in crucial infrastructure projects in health care, education, and energy.leave room for interpretation of "help strengthen" , "the future" , and "critical infrastructure".
Numbers matter- investors move money, and create jobs based on numbers. Consumers purchase because they have disposable income, or available credit, and product prices are low. The Obama Administration is correct in identifying the intangible psychology of consumers and investors manifests itself in ways unexplainable by numbers, but the ability to alter expectations about the economic outlook has limitations, and those limitations are the reality that numbers represent.
Original Message
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Organizing for America - your economic crisis story
Thank you for taking part in an Economic Recovery House Meeting.
Americans have organized Economic Recovery House Meetings in all 50 states -- including 382 in California, 255 in Florida, 115 in Ohio, 199 in New York, 105 in Washington, and 149 in Texas.
That's more than 3,587 meetings in 1,579 cities and 429 congressional districts.
At a lot of meetings, guests watched a video of Governor Tim Kaine and shared their stories about how the economic crisis has affected them. If you haven't already, watch the video and share your economic crisis story.
The media is filled with numbers about the economic crisis. But the numbers do not tell the full story.
The story of this crisis is in homes across the country -- homes where a family member has lost a job, where parents are struggling to pay a mortgage, and where college tuition has slipped out of reach.
That's also where the story of our recovery begins -- in communities where repairing roads and bridges, manufacturing green technologies, and rehabilitating our schools and hospitals will directly impact the lives of ordinary people and their families.
President Obama's recovery plan will help struggling families right now by saving or creating up to 4 million jobs. But it will also help strengthen our economy for the future by investing in crucial infrastructure projects in health care, education, and energy.
Share your story about how this economic crisis is affecting you and your family and join your fellow Americans in supporting bold action to speed our recovery:
http://my.barackobama.com/
Thank you for organizing so much support at this crucial moment for our country,
Mitch
Mitch Stewart
Director
Organizing for America
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